Bitcoin call options with a $100,000 strike price have become the most heavily traded instrument on the Deribit exchange - with open interest nearing $1.2 billion, according to CoinDesk Markets editor Omkar Godbole. This surge in demand suggests a growing expectation of bullish momentum in the crypto market.
The recent shift comes as macroeconomic sentiment improves. Deribit’s market update noted a reversal in investor positioning - traders abandoned put options in the $75,000 - $78,000 range and canceled calls at $85,000 - $100,000 after Bitcoin rebounded from the $75,000 level. The market, Deribit emphasized, transitioned from a defensive stance to an aggressive recovery.
Policy Confusion Sparks Volatility
On April 11, the White House announced a reduction in tariffs for key Chinese tech products, removing the previously forecast 125% duty and a baseline 10% fee. However, former President Donald Trump quickly contradicted the statement, asserting the tariff would instead be set at 20%. The conflicting narratives sparked market uncertainty - yet Bitcoin continued its upward trajectory, trading around $84,800 at the time of writing.
Predictive Indicators Turn Positive
Options activity reflects a broader forecast of rising BTC valuations. Deribit analysts reported that derivative metrics - particularly the put-call skew - have moved into positive territory after staying negative for weeks. Although the 7-day timeframe remains an exception, even that indicator has sharply recovered from recent lows of -14%. Call option positions are now heavily clustered in the $95,000 - $120,000 range, while puts centered at $70,000 hold $982 million in open interest - the second-largest bearish bet.
Institutional Bets Reinforce Bullish Outlook
In a notable move, Mechanism Capital founder Andrew Kang doubled his long position on Bitcoin to $200 million, with potential gains or losses estimated at $6.8 million, as reported by Arkham. Kang initially committed $100 million using 40x leverage following Trump’s comment that it was “a good time to buy.” The investor labeled the moment “Trump Put,” signaling a turning point for crypto markets.
Soon after, the White House announced a 90-day delay in reciprocal tariffs for all U.S. trade partners except China. Kang later commented that the combination of trade war resolution and renewed executive optimism creates “ideal conditions” for Bitcoin to break out of a prolonged downtrend.
Diverging Trends in ETF Activity
Despite rising speculative interest, CryptoQuant analysts warned of renewed outflows from spot BTC ETFs. The sharp decline in assets under management may indicate that institutional players are once again pulling back. Experts advised market participants to monitor this trend closely, as it could predict increased volatility or dampen further upside.
Conflicting Predictions for the Coming Months
While near-term indicators appear bullish, some forecasts remain cautious. Pseudonymous analyst Capo Of Crypto has projected another wave of investor capitulation in the coming weeks, followed by a potential return to bearish market conditions by autumn. The divergence in predictions - from $100,000 targets to warnings of another downturn - underscores the complexity of the current macro and crypto landscape.
In this evolving environment, the balance of derivative positions and institutional signals will remain key in forecasting Bitcoin’s next major move.
