Macroeconomic indicators suggest stability in the U.S. economy, with the Federal Reserve expected to conclude its high-interest-rate policy by June. Technical analyst Michaël van de Poppe anticipates a recovery in market capitalization following recent corrections. According to Standard Chartered, current market conditions are favorable for Bitcoin and the broader digital asset cryptosector, driven by moderate bond yields and economic stability.
Jeffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, highlighted that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds remains below 4.5%. This suggests that the bond market dismisses the likelihood of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, providing support for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
“The fact that 10-year Treasury yields have not risen above 4.5% despite strong U.S. employment data is a positive signal for digital assets,” Kendrick stated. “A scenario where yields remain steady while the economy stays healthy is an ideal environment for cryptocurrencies.”
Predicting Bitcoin’s Next ATH
Kendrick further noted that if 10-year bond yields remain below 4.5% through the end of the week, Bitcoin could break through the key resistance level of $102,500.
“If there are no unexpected negative catalysts, such as regulatory interventions or macroeconomic shocks, we may see improved conditions for digital assets. This opens up the possibility of surpassing Bitcoin’s all-time high above $108,000 in February,” he forecasted.
Although the latest U.S. labor market report was somewhat underwhelming, it did not alarm investors. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 143,000 jobs were created in January, falling short of analysts' forecast of 170,000 and significantly lower than December’s 307,000. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined from 4.1% to 4%, wage growth accelerated from 3.9% to 4.1%, and labor force participation rose to 62.6%, indicating a resilient labor market.
End of the Expensive Money Era?
Matt Mena of 21Shares also observed optimistic macroeconomic signals.
“A slowdown in business activity while maintaining labor market stability reduces the necessity of keeping high interest rates,” Mena noted. “This creates a forecasted bullish scenario for Bitcoin as investors anticipate a potential rate cut this year.”
According to the latest Federal Reserve report, the central bank is set to phase out its restrictive monetary policy by June.
Technical Analysis: What’s Next for Bitcoin?
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, described Bitcoin’s current state as “boring,” but he sees a drop to the $89,600-$91,600 range as an “ideal entry zone.” Testing resistance levels around $104,000 suggests a likely push toward a new all-time high.
The overall market capitalization has held a crucial support level, reinforcing confidence among analysts.
“Judging by the current candle tail, the probability of the next few candles turning green is high,” van de Poppe predicted.
Long-Term Forecast: $500,000 by 2028?
Standard Chartered analysts have projected that Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by 2028. This long-term prediction is based on increasing institutional adoption and decreasing volatility, which are expected to drive sustained growth in the crypto market.
