The Mayer Multiple, a long-standing valuation indicator for Bitcoin, currently suggests that the asset remains undervalued - even as its market price approaches historical highs.
The Mayer Multiple compares the current price of Bitcoin to its 30-day simple moving average (SMA). At present, the metric stands at 1.1x, which falls within the neutral valuation band ranging from 0.8x to 1.5x. According to Adler, this positioning is still significantly below the typical overbought threshold of 1.5x, indicating that Bitcoin has not yet entered an overheated phase.
Undervalued Relative to Historical Bull Markets
Adler emphasizes that Bitcoin is trading at a discount when compared to previous bull market cycles. This dynamic, he argues, creates a favorable setup for the predictable emergence of a new upward price impulse, especially if macroeconomic conditions continue to align in Bitcoin's favor.
His view is supported by additional market data. A collection of 30 bull-market peak indicators monitored by CoinGlass remain positioned in the "hold" zone, suggesting that the current cycle has not yet reached its speculative apex.
Diverging Views on the Timing of the Market Peak
Despite consensus among some metrics, market participants remain divided on the timing of a potential cycle top. Prominent trader Rekt Capital, using historical halving cycle data, forecasts the next market peak to arrive in October 2025. His outlook is echoed by analyst Jelle, who observes that some early signs of profit-taking have already emerged in recent weeks.
By contrast, another market expert operating under the pseudonym CryptoCon has predicted that the bull cycle may conclude much earlier - possibly by the end of the current year.
Forecast Signals Favorable Continuation
While short-term sentiment may fluctuate, the technical basis provided by the Mayer Multiple offers a more stable perspective. Analysts who track this model often use it to forecast potential reversals or continuation trends, particularly during mid-cycle periods when speculative activity is less pronounced.
In addition to the Mayer Multiple, several key on-chain and macro indicators continue to signal a supportive environment for digital assets. These include:
- Low long-term holder activity, implying confidence among seasoned investors.
- Modest funding rates across major derivatives platforms.
- A neutral positioning in stablecoin inflows and exchange reserves.
Quiet Market May Precede Renewed Momentum
As noted by recent research from Glassnode, the broader cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a “summer lull”, characterized by reduced trading volumes and diminished volatility. However, analysts caution that such quiet periods have historically preceded sharp directional moves, particularly when macro drivers - such as inflation expectations or monetary policy signals - enter the narrative.
The Mayer Multiple’s current reading offers a tempered but optimistic forecast. If historical patterns hold, Bitcoin may still be in the middle of its broader price cycle, with more upside potential to be realized before the market reaches its eventual peak.
